Improving forecasting performance of realized covariance with extensions of HAR-RCOV model: statistical significance and economic value

Dynamic model selection is likely the best model for covariance matrix forecasting from both the statistical and economic perspectives     

稻鳅共生种养模式试验研究

[目的]稻鳅共生是典型的稻田综合利用模式,符合生态农业发展方向。通过对稻鳅共生生态系统的生理生态学机制开展试验研究,为进一步推广稻鳅共生种养模式提供科学依据。[方法]采用田间试验方法,以水稻单作为对照,研究了不同泥鳅养殖密度下的稻鳅共生对水稻农艺性状、土壤理化性质、水稻产量构成的影响,并对稻鳅共生种养模式进行了经济效益分析。[结果]与对照处理相比,水稻长势在株高、有效分蘖率、根长等方面有一定提高。养殖田水稻株高增高了3%,有效分蘖率提高了8%~11%,根长提高了8.8%~31.3%。在土壤理化性质方面,与对照相比,土壤容重降低了7.1%~21.2%,孔隙度增加了4.1%~14.7%。实验前后养殖田内土壤有机质增加了3.5%~26.5%,对照田降低了2.5%~5.8%。土壤肥力(氮、磷、钾)减少,但减少幅度小于对照处理。稻鳅共生种养模式下水稻产量提高了5%~25%,同时稻田增收泥鳅1 725~3 375kg/hm2,净收入为1.836 0万~2.307 0万元/hm2,经济效益提高了3.65~4.84倍。稻鳅共生种养模式中泥鳅的养殖密度为30万尾/hm2时稻田的生态效益和经济效益最佳。[结论]稻鳅共生有效改善了土壤理化性质,促进了水稻的生长,提高了稻田产量和产值。     

Does Targeted Monetary Policy Matter? A Perspective from China

Several major central banks have experimented with targeted monetary policy to improve credit resource allocation. This policy only applies to ‘eligible’ banks. For example, The People's Bank of China conducted seven targeted reductions of reserve requirements during 2014–15. This article documents the phenomenon of targeted monetary policy and evaluates its effects. The results show that, in the case of China, this policy has generated an extra significant, positive return on the stocks of eligible banks, amounting to 1.2–1.3 per cent in a four‐day treatment period. This substantial return gives commercial banks an extra incentive to align with the policy goals of central banks.     

海南省旅游业发展对经济增长的拉动效应研究

[目的]海南当前处于国际旅游岛建设和全面建成小康社会的关键时期,旅游业作为海南省的主导产业对海南经济发展的支撑作用显著增强,在此形势下,分析旅游业发展对海南经济增长的拉动效应,有利于为进一步提升旅游业对海南区域经济发展的影响,促进区域经济发展和经济结构转型,提出科学可行的对策和建议。[方法]文章从时间和空间两个维度,运用旅游业依存度、贡献率和拉动率3个指标,以旅游收入与地区生产总值等统计指标为基础,探讨了海南省旅游业对经济增长的拉动效应。[结果]从时间维度来看,海南省旅游业对地区经济增长的拉动作用进一步加大;从空间维度来看,海南省旅游业的拉动效应并不突出;从市(县)域维度来看,海南省各市(县)旅游业对经济增长拉动效应存在空间差异,东部地区拉动效应持续增长,中部地区增长势头迅猛,北部地区增长缓慢。[结论]不断完善海南旅游基础设施与管理体系;要不断细分和规范旅游产品,提升旅游产品的吸引力和复购率,完善营销及咨询服务体系;注意与其他产业的协调发展,加强与周边省份的交流与合作,省内要因地制宜,挖掘各地旅游业发展特色,推动各市(县)均衡发展,以进一步加强海南省旅游支柱产业的作用,并快速实现区域经济跨越式发展。     

Banks’ deferred tax assets during the financial crisis

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Prior studies have demonstrated that the net deferred tax liabilities of industrial firms are valued by market participants in a manner consistent...     

Evolution of FDI flows in the global network: 2003–2012

As one type of international capital flow, FDI maintains its important role in globalization. This article attempts to investigate the evolution of the FDI flows from a network perspective. Based on the bilateral FDI flows data between countries from 2003 to 2012, we construct the global FDI flows network for each year and thus quantify network measures (such as flow volumes and connections); further by analysing the tendency and changes of these network measures during the past 10 years, we delineate the features and dynamics of the FDI flows in the global network. We have the following findings: (a) the flows network changes during and after the crisis, i.e. flow volume fallen down and recovered, and flow connection restructured with more diversity; (b) the global FDI flows network is getting more loosely connected; (c) individual countries vary in different patterns.     

Improving forecasting performance using covariate-dependent copula models

Copulas provide an attractive approach to the construction of multivariate distributions with flexible marginal distributions and different forms of dependences. Of particular importance in many areas is the possibility of forecasting the tail-dependences explicitly. Most of the available approaches are only able to estimate tail-dependences and correlations via nuisance parameters, and cannot be used for either interpretation or forecasting. We propose a general Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting tail-dependences and correlations as explicit functions of covariates, with the aim of improving the copula forecasting performance. The proposed covariate-dependent copula model also allows for Bayesian variable selection from among the covariates of the marginal models, as well as the copula density. The copulas that we study include the Joe-Clayton copula, the Clayton copula, the Gumbel copula and the Student’s $t$-copula. Posterior inference is carried out using an efficient MCMC simulation method. Our approach is applied to both simulated data and the S&P 100 and S&P 600 stock indices. The forecasting performance of the proposed approach is compared with those of other modeling strategies based on log predictive scores. A value-at-risk evaluation is also performed for the model comparisons.     

我国秸秆综合利用面临形势与对策研究

[目的]为加快推动秸秆资源化利用,促进农业绿色发展。[方法]文章在系统梳理我国秸秆综合利用政策文件、相关文献的基础上,全面分析了我国农作物秸秆禁烧和综合利用的发展阶段,提出了秸秆利用面临的形势和存在的主要问题。[结果]我国秸秆综合利用从时间序列上,可以划分为起步阶段、强力推进阶段和攻坚阶段。城镇化的快速推进、农村能源结构的调整、农业供给侧结构性改革的实施、农作物季节矛盾突出等,成为秸秆综合利用面临的新形势、新挑战。当前推进秸秆综合利用存在四大方面问题:秸秆还田成本较高,区域技术规范和技术适宜性缺乏;受"成本地板"和"价格天花板"双重挤压,秸秆产业化利用发展困难;秸秆收储运成本高,技术装备水平低,用地、运输问题尚未解决,收储运体系建设不健全;关键性政策工具尚未破题,缺乏普惠性、针对性的资金扶持。[结论]针对形势与问题,提出了推进秸秆资源化利用的4条对策建议:开展县域秸秆全量化利用、分区施策确定秸秆利用方向、加强政策工具集成创设、扩大试点示范引导。     

Risk assessment for public–private partnership projects: using a fuzzy analytic hierarchical process method and expert opinion in China

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have been widely used in China to procure public facilities and services. Complicated problems in PPP projects in China arise because of a variety of risk factors. A proper risk assessment model is needed to identify risks and provide risk response strategies for future Chinese PPP projects. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method provides the ability to solve complex risk assessment of PPP projects. Current risk assessment models are limited to PPP projects in specific countries and do not consider unique risks in China, especially political, economic, social, and legal risks. This paper designed a risk evaluation index system for PPP projects based on the Delphi expert investigation method, and then established an optimized risk evaluation model for PPP projects in China using the F-AHP method. The risks identified are confirmed by interviewing experts from Chinese local government departments, private enterprise, third-party intermediary consulting and regulatory agencies, and academic organizations. The results show that the risks that ranked among the top ten are closely related to China’s political and economic policies and relationships among stakeholders. It can be concluded that government authorities play a critical role in providing a favorable political, social, and economic environment and an effective institutional framework for PPP projects. Furthermore, it is also important to deal with relationships among stakeholders based on the public–private ‘win–win’ principle. This study provides risk response strategies, addressing key issues from eight aspects: an impeccable legal and regulatory framework; a central coordinating and regulating PPP authority; supportive governmental authorities; institutional capacity-building; favorable economic conditions and viability; community, partner, and moral accountability; clear division of responsibilities through contracts; and effective advisory management. These effective measures may be useful in reducing the adverse effects of risk for PPP projects in China.     

Material weakness disclosures and restatement announcements: The joint and order effects

We examine differences in stock price, option volatility, and litigation reactions to restatement announcements that are associated with a material weakness (MW) disclosure. Contrasted with restatements that are not associated with any MW disclosure, our analyses reveal that firms that announce both a restatement and an associated MW experience significantly more negative market returns, greater implied volatility, and higher likelihood of class action lawsuits. Separating the restatements into timely reporters, where the MW precedes the restatement, and non‐timely reporters, where the MW is concurrent with or follows the restatement, we find that timely reporters experience more negative returns at the time of the restatement, relative to non‐timely reporters, suggesting that investors perceive the early MW disclosure to signal more pervasive control‐related problems. Interestingly, we find that timely and non‐timely reporters are equally likely to be sued, consistent with the argument that wrongdoing (through either a timely or non‐timely MW disclosure) provides stronger grounds for establishing scienter. However, timely reporters appear to secure more favorable litigation outcomes: they face higher likelihood of lawsuit dismissals and pay much lower settlements, compared to non‐timely reporters. Overall, our evidence provides new insights into how market participants incorporate information about internal control weaknesses into their perceptions regarding the economic implications of financial restatements, and financial reporting quality.